The economic impact on Costa Rica of the crisis

Abstract

It is really a rather difficult exercise to try to estimate the effects on the Costa Rican economy of the Persian Gulf crisis. The reasons are simple: the possible evolution of some of the most important markets, which could affect Costa Rica, is highly volatile; therefore, any prediction should be taken with great care. For example, I have learned that the International Monetary Fund has recommended that, for this year's estimates, an average oil barrel price of around US$25 be taken and, some people, who even work for that agency, have many doubts about how appropriate that estimate is.
I have found some other perspectives on this topic: a distinguished local group of economists considered a set of so-called "scenarios," in which they deal with oil prices ranging from less than US$20 to more than U.S. $35, which only sends me a message: only God seems to know what will happen to the price of oil , as a result of the Gulf War.